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Funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF Award Number: 0753163) and the Gloria Barron Scholarship of The Wilderness Society

Conservation Ecology of Endemic Plant Species within the Greater Colorado River Corridor: Potential Climate Change Impacts on Range Shifts

Figure 1: Greater Colorado River Corridor Climate Change Project Study Area

The Colorado Plateau ecoregion supports one of the highest levels of endemism in the U.S. Ranking in the top three ecoregions on the continent for the total number of endemics in all taxonomic groups (Ricketts et al 1999). Of the 6,000 plant species found on the Colorado Plateau, it has the greatest number of vascular plant endemics in North America (Kartesz and Farsted 1999). Thirty-four of these species are federally listed as endangered or threatened, many other species are rare. Some of these species find refuge in protected areas provided by National Parks and Monuments on the Colorado Plateau (Figure 1). The Colorado Plateau contains 122,805,655 acres of land, of these 3,622,942 acres (3%) are protected lands in National Parks and Monuments, another 64,748,735 acres (52%) are federally owned.

Understanding the dynamics of climate change and other disturbances on species distribution is important to protect the endemic species that currently occupy protected areas. The available tools to understand climate change impacts on biodiversity are climate change models. Of these models, ecological niche modeling (ENM) is the best available tool for producing species specific information necessary in conservation planning (Hannah 2003).

A species distribution or range may shift due to climate change. This might move endemic species into and out of protected areas. Modeling these range shifts and land use projections will provide a better understanding of how protected areas can manage for climate change and other disturbances. The Greater Colorado River Corridor Climate Change Project will enhance our understanding of climate change effects and their impact on biodiversity in the Colorado Plateau. The research objectives of the project are:

1. Identify endemic plant species of the Colorado Plateau that are within or near wilderness areas,
2. Accumulate current distribution data of species. Locate and gather known species occurrence data, environmental layer data for model (e.g., soils, land use) and convert to Kepler data file structure.
3. Model current distributions of species using MaxEnt to determine current day potential distributions.
4. Life history comparison with projected occurrence data.
5. Model future climate change projections using MaxEnt for each species to determine future potential distributions.
6. Locate areas of intense loss or gain of endemic species. Identify how species may move into and out of protected areas.
7. Provide conservation strategies for the regions preservation.